Monday, January 4, 2016

IS THE MEDIA A WASTE OF TIME? - ARE PRESIDENTIAL POLLS FAKE? - LET'S FIND OUT

FOOS RESEARCH: Scientific research and design, polls, professional analysis

PLEASE take our survey. The Muslim Obamanation has near zero approval as most article comments go. Gallup Polls show a 43-47% approval rating. Would Putin win the US presidency? Are the MSM and Gallup Poll big fat LIES? Let's find out for sure. For more information go to this website or directly to this form. Results will be intermittently available through the website or direct by email for those who participate. You will get professional results and gret graphic analysis without political conflicts of interest. THANK YOU! 

EARLY RESULTS FOR 1st SURVEY (click here)

If Putin Ran Against Obama For President
Should Muslims Be Allowed into the United States
We have a dire need for quality, scientific research without dependencies on funding by corporate interests that profit from those results, but also organizations with corporate ties, being essentially anything government. That ends up being almost any research results that you might find from a Google search.  So, who can you trust? I'm tempted to say nobody, but right now I am nobody. I have no funds at all, and no reputation. But what I do have is lots of time and a good education.  This is not a business, it's about helping people like you steer your own path to find good information and make our voice heard. 

I also have a lot of pet peeves reinforced for many years as the quality of the MSM (mainstream media) news has deteriorated and become polluted with bias.  You can't even make a comment on many articles such as Yahoo if it contains a link to better information.  Being the son of a once autistic child due to the MMR, I've always despaired over the heavy propaganda used to discredit parents who certainly know their children best. Professionally, I'm capable of conducting the best scientific research myself, but lack the resources to fight the vaccination lobby. Anyway, that's been done often enough, but it isn't easy to dig up. 

What finally brought me out of my cave was the dramatic and unspeakable deterioration of the USA these last 12 years. Normally, I shun politics, but it suddenly hits me that "now it the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country."  I can't sit back any longer watching the media define reality for the rest of us. Consider recently that Gallup Polls shows an Obama approval rating of not much under 50%, but a quick examination of Yahoo comments seldom reveal more than 4% approval, even while these articles are strong biased in Obama's favor (as much as they are against Trump). And while the often accuse Trump of lying, it's easy to determine that just the opposite is true. Has Obama ever told the truth about anything. 

Anyway, I'm reluctant to put readers off by showing my own bias, but as we enter 2016 I want to strike fast and determine just what the common man really thinks of Obama (and by association more or less the rest of the democratic lineup).  Yahoo readers must be as close to an even cut as you can get, but if I submit a link or even keywords to an independent survey that challenges Yahoo's worldview, well, poof, it's gone.  So, this will be first survey as I struggle against impossible odds to offer a truly independent service. It's an exciting idea, but probably doomed unless I can overcome and get as many of YOU as I can to take surveys and give me more back links and posts.  A survey isn't much of your time, but extra effort is not for me, but for YOU, for ALL of us who want not only to KNOW, but to be heard, so help out, YOU, as many as can see like me that a clear and strong voice from the great unwashed is the only hope we have of being heard... 

If this presidential survey goes well, vaccine safety will be next on the burner. After that, it depends you you. How about saw palmetto? Like many other supplements, do they really work or do we just listen to comment reviews on company websites that sell them? Nobody seems to know for sure, but given the state of the art in statistics and experimental design, why shouldn't we? Many other questions remained unanswered. We have little of value from the media or corporations or government. Foos Research is a simple concept, to conduct entirely unbiased professional research and provide results to the common man.  Survey's require little work, but sifting through a thousand or more and providing high quality reports and graphics is what I was born and raised to do. 

Please promote and support these endeavors. Repost and link where you can.


Alan Foos Biography 

Alan Foos earned his MS in Soils from Montana State University. His thesis utilized a large 200 cell randomized block design with 25 treatment effects for a single ANOVA, several paired comparisons, and thousands of regressions used to measure dozens of effects and provide future predictions. Extensive use was made of statistical design, providing a deep understanding of statistical procedures. A by product of that understanding led to the development of the "randomized block" theorem. The theorem describes in depth the connection between treatment significance and consistency of treatment effects across replications. 

More important, this in turn yields a useful parameter that quantifies the goodness of fit in any experimental design with any number of replicated sets of data, that may be called the Foos Coefficient of Covariance. For example, in the equation above, the FCC (Foos Coefficient of Covariance) is equal to the Replication Mean Square minus the Error Mean Square divided by the sum of variances for all sets of elements held in common across replications. The theorem shows how this works for both treatments and replications in a randomized block. For example, the FCC for treatments would be the Block Mean Square less the Error Mean Square divided by the sum of variances for each treatment variance across all replications. 

In simple terms, an FCC of zero means that there no consistency across replicated elements (blocks or treatments), while an FCC of one means 100% consistency for changes, be they for treatments across blocks (treatment FCC) or treatments within blocks (block FCC) in a randomized block experiment. Similarly, using the FCC formula, an FCC can be calculated for any sets of data across any number of replications; whereas otherwise it would be nearly impossible. If you like difficult math problems, especially if you're a good PhD statistician, enjoy the proof and derivation of the Foos Coefficient of Covariance, full proof provided on 2nd web page, 
http://foosresearch.weebly.com/coefficient-of-covariance-theorem.html


Foos Coefficient of Covariance for Statistical Designs
Foos Coefficient of Covariance

CONVINCING EXAMPLE

This is an example of work I did on a quality graphic analysis that rescued a defendant was facing five years in prison and $50,000-$80,000 USD in penalties.  Bank records obtained by means of court subpoena should have been sufficient to prevent this from the outset and prosecute the scammer, but the attorneys and court dropped the ball. Four years later, after many court hearings and horrible stress, the subpoena was finally obtained.  The data, summarized in the graph,  was sufficient (in any court) to prove that the defendant was telling the truth about being the real victim. The raw numbers are not easy to interpret, but the graph gives convincing proof at a glance. 


Withdrawals by Defendant Matching Deposits by Scammer

MISSION OF FOOS RESEARCH 

This is about YOU, about US, not about Alan Foos. We are saturated in information, yet for many purposes find ourselves in the midst of an information blackout. The polls are a good example because they clearly do not represent OUR opinion, that of the average person. Obama would have never been elected if they did, and many of us know that. So, to start out 2016 as an election year, such a survey makes a good starting point.  If people respond, we can go on to many other questions that neither the mainstream media or the corporate monopoly on research can or will give us answers to. The media and government has crucified Andrew Wakefield for linking the MMR to autism while also discrediting and disparaging the thousands of us parents who watched the MMR destroy our children. Better than medical research could be a better picture of damages as seen by them.  For good answers to any such questions, we need a "nobody" like me who has a strong academic background in real research.  MONEY? I don't need money and have plenty of time. Money might be helpful for advertising the service and web presence and for serious scientific investigations if we ever get that far.

But we NEED each other. I honestly don't see how I can establish enough presence through SEO to get enough people to drive a truly independent research service. If you are reading this and can help get the word out, please do that. 


STRANGE EXPERIENCE WITH TELESURVEY 
The mystery of Research Data Design

But, you say, my academic training in research is over 30 years old, what good is it to research today? Actually, research techniques haven't improved, only the ability to slice and dice large amounts of data and quickly develop charts to visualize it. If Foos Research was privileged enough to gather gigabytes of input, Alan Foos is ready to use SPSS or Systat or Statgraphics for best effects.  As for experience in the art of surveys, I have more to say about that, not being sure it's a good idea to give it voice. Making a good survey isn't high tech stuff, but here is my story.

Unfortunately, I've not been privileged to work much on real scientific studies these past 36 years   I made the mistake of trying to stay in Montana which is profoundly backwards culturally, drenched in alcohol, drugs, vulgarity and both racial and religious bigotry. My best experiences came from working for Fort Peck Community College on the reservation. I very much regret leaving, but my children were unable to attend school there and we were suffering from the gamut of malicious threats from crooks tied to the state administration. Most would have dismissed it as a real concern, but the threats made were very credible and meant to instill fear, ranging from criminal legal activities to outright murder against everyone in the family. Moving to Missoula, my birthplace, was a bad decision. I had to abandon my job, but my son was able to finish high school there.  But then what?

Missoula has been called the "San Francisco" of Montana, but it would be more accurate to say that it is a dump saturated with drug users, pedophiles, alcoholics and the worst possible quality of administration on all levels.  It was impossible to find decent work while my son finished high school at Big Sky.  One day I took the old Dodge Ram to a fishing hole near Frenchtown.  As I was returning to the pickup after an hour's walk, a strange, short man about 5'6" was standing about 12 feet away waiting to approach me.  He was only about 30, about 140 pounds, had a ruddy complexion with about an inch of reddish beard.  His own pickup truck was parked about 40 feet away. It wasn't old and cheap like mine, but sparkly new and very expensive looking like the one I'd read of by people claiming the FBI was using to peddle cocaine in the vicinity of Havre, Montana.  

Well, for no apparent reason, Mr. Redbeard began blurting out his confession of being a daily crack user for several years. He said that he had worked as a supervisor for a company in Missoula with dozens of employees, all of whom smoked crack with several other supervisors.  Nobody just approaches a stranger at a fishing hole with a load like that out of the blue, as if I had a history of drug use, which I didn't, so I was immediately on guard.  He said that every so often he'd have to run off to Seattle and take a couple of weeks to "dry out."  It was hard to believe such a business existed in Missoula, but I didn't want to inquire directly. it did sound like a front for drug distribution, so I asked, what about the manangers or CEOs, did they know about this? Yes, he said, but they didn't mind. I inched my way back to the truck and left, thinking wow, somebody is pulling my strings in a really bad way. I wouldn't be surprised if someone invited me to work there next. Who knew I was at this fishing hole? Only the three people in my Bible study group and a fourth, a new arrival who did not act like a Christian at all. He was only there it seemed to put the hustle on our musician. No good reasons for coming to town or being in the church. I didn't trust him at all. He also knew of our plans to travel to Boise.   

Six weeks later, the 2nd week in June, the four of us took Alan's Explorer to Boise to attend a festival for Christ.  Lover Boy didn't come, only Alan and the two ladies. We were travelling at 70 mph+ right next to the Snake on our left which was raging reddish brown with spring runoff, when a newish, dual wheeled utility truck sped by at no less than 100 mph. It struck us on the left side, breaking the windows, such that it shouldn't have been impossible to avoid plunging into the river, but somehow Alan kept good enough control to swerve left, but left the road on the left, missing many large rocks and bushes before we were able to stop, possibly about here: http://bit.ly/1PAcaL5.  The utility truck kept going, disappearing over a hill about a half mile down. Then, after about 20 minutes, he came back with a patrolman. Since the speed limit there was 55, the others decided we should agree to fib to the patrolman in our statements that Alan was going only 55, but he was for sure doing 70 or over. I thought this wasn't a good idea, especially because to me it looked very strange and likely not an accident, but who could know for sure. No doubt the other driver also lied about his speed.  Oddly, he and the patrolman were close acquaintances, using first names and chatting casually. 

The Snake RIver incident may have been only an accident, but I wouldn't have been a bit surprised if Lover Boy were to invite me to work at a some kind of Missoula business that was in reality a cocaine racket and distribution point. Well, you got it. He worked at a telesurvey outfit on Palmer Drive in the midst of all the government buildings. Several dozen telephone operators were hired at any given time to do tele surveys.  Most of these were college or high school age youngsters. Since about 1994, this place employed a heavy turnover of unskilled telephone solicitors to do surveys. About half of these were surveys for WAMU (Washington Mutual Bank) based in Miami with which it had clearly strong ties.  Currently a CEO is listed as the founder and current CEO, but in 2004 a different CEO was listed as a Columbia national living in Miami. He was credited with 18 years experience with Gallup Polls in Columbia and Brazil.  I don't remember his name now. WAMU, well known for its cocaine culture and  laundering of drug money from Fortune 500 startups in Miami, in 2008 became the largest bank failure in US history. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Mutual.  

This being ten years ago, I cannot say what things are like now. It was not the appropriate job for me, but then $150/week was better than nothing at the time, and I had something to do. My curiosity was also soon satisfied when the managers began casually dropping hints about their love of crack, though I was lured with crank and pot as well. Given the circumstances leading to this, I was sure that I was not a prospect for drug sales or kindred company, but was the target of a reverse sting. Having just tangled with Missoula Public Schools administration over their hiring of pedophiles and porn activities, it probably had something to do with that. I was careful to lock the RAM and check underneath for bugs and drugs, but stayed on to study this further. It soon became obvious that those who did not respond to the drug overtures would become targets for harassment and false accusations. Cocaine users were being retained and others being driven off and new ones brought in with a new hiring promotion every few months.  That much I could say with certainty. At the risk of being called a conspiracy theorist, I'd say that there is sufficient data to easily conclude that RDD is also a cocaine racket run in cooperation with the federal government. That the government began peddling large amounts of cocaine under Reagan is no secret, but nobody seems to know where the dope goes after being smuggled in. 

It was only a matter of time before ignoring the drug overtures would get these punk managers on my back, but meanwhile, I did hundreds of tele surveys in 2004. I was able to chat with people from all walks of life and found it quite enjoyable. Aside from WAMU, most of the surveys were either funded by big pharma or the federal government. Of particular interest were surveys by Merck and Pfizer to test people's knowledge of the Cox-2 inhibitors, Bextra, Celebrex and Vioxx. That Vioxx was causing severe organ damage and many deaths was by then well established and Merck was withdrawing it from shelves as the survey was being done. Merck settled three years later for $4.85 billion, though most analysts predicted up to $25 billion. Merck denied any wrongdoing, but certainly knew Vioxx was dangerous several years earlier (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/09/business/09merck.html?_r=0). More revealing and from the surveys it was clear that Celebrex and Bextra, also Cox-2 inhibitors marketed by Pfizer, were most likely to be causing the same damage, but Pfizer continued to sell them aggressively, anyway. Ironically, after working several hours one day on those surveys, I walked into the house to see a Celebrex commercial on TV.  One of the last surveys I did at RDD required those of us conducting it to sign a special agreement not to divulge the nature of the survey to anyone or incur severe civil and possibly criminal penalties. I can't remember the exact wording of the agreement, but I remember that the survey was jury selection for the Enron prosecutions of Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling from a pool of respondents in Texas. I suppose that making this statement could bring about trouble, but I think jury selection is supposed to be open to the public and the secrecy of this case was symptomatic of the appearance of official wrong doing by both RDD and many of the contractors for other surveys. 

It was very odd, even bizarre, to later see a sign pop in front of the RDD business in Missoula with the words, "Connally and Skilling Oil."  There was no sign for the tele survey business or anything else to connect the Skilling sign with. Perhaps it was no less strange than the adjacent two story building to the left with a big sign in front, "Justice Department." You would think there would be business going on there, but when I stepped in to check, there was a large foyer which was barren except for a bulletin board posting various services that had nothing to do with anything being done. The main interior to this large building was behind doors with huge locks, I think combination style.  Peeping into the windows, it was dark inside with no lights or activity of any kind.  You could make out large piles of dusty papers and books on a desk, that was all. So, I pounded on the doors until to my surprise, someone finally came. I told him I had a problem and needed someone to talk to, so he showed me to his office. This had a huge picture window facing directly at the adjacent entry to the telesurvey operation. I spun a rambling, somewhat true but irrelevant story about my wife and kids being a target of official corruption.  I said, what can we do? He said to wait, then disappeared for about ten minutes. He eventually returned with another fellow, no doubt the only other inhabitant, and I talked to both of them for a while about mostly nothing. If you ask me, the place was no less strange than the tele survey racket next door.    
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